[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] Refined cobalt smelting production cuts, prices may trend stronger this week

Refined Cobalt:

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt saw a slight increase. From the supply side, production cuts at refined cobalt smelters continued, and social inventory was still being digested at a steady pace. From the demand side, downstream producers did not see a significant recovery in orders, maintaining their purchasing rhythm of scheduling production based on demand, with relatively low willingness to purchase at high prices. However, some traders anticipated the gradual introduction of subsequent policies in the DRC, leading to increased activity in speculative trading. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will hold up well this week.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products increased slightly. On the supply side, mainstream miners continued to suspend spot order quotations, with only traders offering quotes in the market, but they showed strong willingness to stand firm on quotes, resulting in generally high overall quotations. Downstream producers had completed their inventory stockpiling earlier, and inquiries and purchases were relatively weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the spot price of cobalt intermediate products will remain stable this week.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The spot price of cobalt sulphate remained stable this week. From the supply side, cobalt salt smelters continued their strategy of standing firm on quotes, with no price adjustments observed. Traders' quoted prices for their inventory were also relatively stable. From the demand side, inquiries from downstream producers decreased slightly, with an extremely strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, buyers and sellers are in a stalemate, with the market still awaiting further guidance on the DRC's sales ban policy. It is expected that the spot price of cobalt sulphate will maintain a fluctuating trend this week.

Cobalt Chloride:

At the beginning of this week, cobalt chloride prices remained temporarily stable. From the supply perspective, the issue of raw material shortages has not yet been resolved, with most manufacturers maintaining relatively high quotations and a low likelihood of selling at low prices. On the demand side, the market appeared somewhat sluggish after the holiday, with fewer inquiries, primarily meeting rigid demand, and spot prices fluctuating at highs. If the market remains sluggish, the transaction price of cobalt chloride may decline. However, due to manufacturers' reluctance to sell, the extent of the price decline is expected to be limited.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

At the beginning of this week, the spot price of Co3O4 experienced a decline. On the supply side, the market was relatively sluggish, with most smelters maintaining their pre-holiday quotations, but transaction activity decreased. On the demand side, some enterprises' acceptance of high-priced Co3O4 declined, leading to a downward trend in spot prices. It is expected that in the latter part of the month, as LCO manufacturers' inventories are gradually depleted, there may be a certain level of restocking demand, triggering a new round of procurement. Therefore, the downside room for Co3O4 spot prices may be limited, and they are more likely to fluctuate at highs.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, the cobalt powder market continued to operate steadily, with enterprises maintaining stable quotations overall, and only limited room for negotiation based on differences in order volumes. From the supply and demand perspective, although demand from the downstream alloy industry remained relatively stable, the continuous influx of recycled materials continued to squeeze the primary cobalt powder market, resulting in significantly low purchasing willingness for primary cobalt powder among downstream buyers and a slightly sluggish market trading atmosphere.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

On Monday, prices for 5-series and 6-series products in the ternary cathode precursor market decreased slightly, while prices for 8-series products remained stable. In terms of raw material costs, prices for nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate remained stable, while prices for manganese sulphate decreased slightly, leading to a weakening in prices for medium- and low-nickel products. From the demand side, the overall performance of the large NEV precursor market was mediocre. Despite some order transfers among manufacturers, there was no significant increase in overall demand, which was still mainly supported by existing projects. Recently, orders for small power and consumer precursors have increased, mainly influenced by rising cobalt prices, prompting some downstream material plants to choose to stockpile in advance, but the actual increase in demand was limited. On the supply side, due to fluctuations in the market this year, NEV precursor producers generally no longer sign long-term (e.g., six-month or one-year) orders, instead opting for monthly discount negotiations. Some enterprises have increased the discount coefficients for long-term contracts, but downstream customers have low acceptance of the adjusted prices. Consumer precursors are still mainly sold through spot orders, with discount coefficients remaining stable since April. Currently, precursor enterprises and downstream material plants are still in a price negotiation phase. Looking ahead to this week, it is expected that prices for nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate will continue to rise mildly, and driven by raw material costs, ternary cathode precursor prices may have a slight upside room.

Ternary Cathode Material:

On Monday, ternary cathode material prices continued to decline. In terms of raw materials, prices for nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate remained stable overall, while prices for manganese sulphate decreased slightly. Prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide fell further sharply, driving down the prices of various ternary cathode materials. From the demand side, the large NEV market performed steadily. Although individual automakers achieved good sales, providing some support for ternary cathode materials, the increase was limited. The traditional peak season for the consumer market has not yet begun. Although some manufacturers stockpiled in advance due to rising cobalt prices, the overall increase in demand remained relatively limited. On the supply side, the current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with some enterprises increasing the relevant discount coefficients. In spot order transactions, manufacturers generally adopt a settlement method of negotiating discounts separately for raw materials such as nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and lithium carbonate. The discount coefficients for spot order quotations have increased, but downstream acceptance is low. Recently, market transaction sentiment has been weak, mainly influenced by the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. The market remains pessimistic about its future outlook, leading to weak willingness among ternary cathode material producers to sell. In addition, downstream battery plants have already completed some stockpiling earlier, with low purchasing willingness in the short term. In terms of price trends, it is expected that prices for nickel salts and cobalt salts may rise mildly in the future, while lithium salt prices still have significant downside room. Ternary cathode material prices will still be affected by fluctuations in raw material prices, with the possibility of further declines.

LCO:

This week, the mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO in the market were 220,000 yuan/mt, 225,000 yuan/mt, and 236,000 yuan/mt, respectively. On the raw material side, battery-grade lithium carbonate continued its previous downward trend this week, and Co3O4 prices decreased slightly. Influenced by raw material prices, LCO prices fell slightly this week. On the supply side, starting from April, top-tier enterprises fully released their capacity, with production steadily increasing and remaining at high levels. On the demand side, terminal manufacturers stockpiled for the 618 shopping festival, driving an increase in battery cell manufacturers' procurement orders. In addition, influenced by DRC policies, there is still significant uncertainty regarding cobalt, so LCO cathode plants are cautious in their shipments.

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News:    

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SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Lin Ziya 86-2151666902

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lü Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Xu Mengqi 021-20707868